US Strikes Iran: Oil Stays Calm, Stocks Diverge
CENTCOM struck Iranian missile launchers near the Strait of Hormuz on the night of May 25, yet Brent crude barely budged and WTI actually fell. Markets are pricing in a deal, not a war, and that bet is already reshuffling capital on Vietnam's trading boards.
Hormuz in the Grey Zone: Three Scenarios for May 25-29
Two official statements from Washington and Tehran flatly contradicted each other about the Strait of Hormuz on the same evening. Vietnam's oil and gas stocks lost 7-12% last week and now face three divergent scenarios.
Wall Street Sets Record, U.S. Consumer Confidence Hits 74-Year Low
The Dow Jones reached an all-time high of 50,579 points while the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index sank to its worst reading since 1952. Same week, same economy, one explanation: K-shaped divergence at its most extreme in history.
Warsh Sworn in at the White House: Three Paths for the Fed
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair at the White House, the first time since 1987. With US CPI at 3.8% and hawkish signals from the April FOMC minutes, three rate scenarios are now in play with distinct implications for the VN-Index and the USD/VND exchange rate.
MSCI June 2026: 17 of 18 criteria met, forex access still unresolved
Five weeks from the MSCI annual review, Vietnam ticks 17 of 18 market access criteria. The one sticking point is forex liberalization. Three scenarios are on the table, and each one demands a different portfolio response.
April FOMC Minutes: Fed Leans Toward Hikes, Not Cuts
The April 2026 FOMC minutes reveal that a majority of Fed officials see further tightening as appropriate if inflation stays above 2%, upending the rate-cut thesis that many equity investors were counting on.
WTI Below $100: Three Things to Re-read Before the May 21 Session
WTI crude just fell below $100 for the first time since Hormuz was blockaded. The Iran risk premium built into BSR, GAS, and PLX over two months is starting to unwind.
Vietnam's Fuel Fund Runs Dry: Three Scenarios for May 21
The BOG stabilization fund has barely VND 199.92 billion left as Brent recovers nearly 20% to USD 108/barrel. Wednesday's Ministry announcement will determine whether prices hold, rise, or fall on their own.
US 30-Year Yield Hits 19-Year High, VN-Index Faces 1,900
The US 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.18% (a 19-year high) on May 19. Wall Street closed in the red, the VN-Index retreated from its all-time high. Three technical signals to watch for the next move.
Vietnam's Third IPO Wave Arrives at the Market Peak: Three Absorption Scenarios
VN-Index just hit an all-time high. The government convened to review divestment at 23 state conglomerates, and LPBS launched a VND 4,256 billion IPO. The question is no longer whether a new IPO wave is coming; it's how the secondary market will absorb it.
Nikkei Up, KOSPI Down: Which Side Is VN-Index On
Nikkei gained 0.9% while KOSPI lost 1.4% on the same morning of May 19. The divergence isn't about sentiment. It's about market structure, and VN-Index sits firmly in Japan's camp.
Musk Lost on Timing: The AI Balance of Power Shifted in April
An Oakland jury dismissed Musk's lawsuit over a missed statute of limitations deadline, not on the merits. The real turning point in the AI landscape happened three weeks earlier.
Decree 161: Base Salary +8.1%, CPI 5.46% Narrows the Gain
Decree 161/2026 raises Vietnam's base salary to VND 2,530,000/month from July 1 for nearly 6 million beneficiaries. But with April 2026 CPI at 5.46%, already above the National Assembly's annual target, real income gains are far smaller than the headline figure and monetary policy room is narrowing.
US 30Y Treasury at 5.127%: Same Number, Two Opposite Readings
The 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.127%, its highest since 2007. For bondholders who bought at 3%, that's a paper loss. For new buyers, it's the richest coupon in 19 years.
VN-Index Hits All-Time High, Dow Jones Drops 537 Points Same Week
During the week of May 11–15, VN-Index set an all-time high of 1,925.46 while the Dow Jones shed 537 points on persistent US inflation at 3.8%. An analysis of the divergence: domestic resilience and its limits.