Vinamilk (Vietnam Dairy Products JSC, HoSE: VNM) is having a strong year. After nine months, consolidated net profit stands at VND 8,605 billion, up 30.6% year on year, or nearly 88% of the full-year plan of VND 9,828 billion.CafeFFireAnt What remains open is the fourth quarter, where shareholders are holding two numbers that point in opposite directions.
According to a Vietcap Securities report after its November 6 investor meeting, Vinamilk's management expects Q4 net profit to grow by double digits year on year, at a pace similar to Q3.CafeF Six days later, in a November 12 report, MB Securities (MBS) forecast Q4 profit of about VND 2,764 billion, down 2.7%.Tin nhanh Chứng khoán This piece sets the two side by side on the same criteria to see what each rests on and which data point will decide between them.
A note on the basis: figures here are Vinamilk's consolidated numbers. MBS's forecasts are stated after minority interests. At Vinamilk the two measures differ by only a few tens of billions of dong a year.
Profit level: a gap of at least about VND 350 billion
The base is Q4 2025, when Vinamilk's consolidated net profit was about VND 2,827 billion, up 31.7% on Q4 2024.Mekong ASEAN Profit after minority interests that quarter was about VND 2,840 billion, and MBS's 2.7% decline lines up with that base.
Double-digit growth means at least 10%. On a base of roughly VND 2,827 billion, management's expectation implies Q4 2026 profit of at least about VND 3,110 billion, some VND 350 billion above MBS's forecast. If growth really matches Q3, when profit rose about 17–18%, the gap is wider still.Tin nhanh Chứng khoán Management gave no absolute Q4 figure, so VND 3,110 billion is only a computed floor.
The base is already high after a gain of more than 31%. MBS's 2.7% decline therefore sits on an elevated level, and VND 2,764 billion is still well above the roughly VND 2,147 billion earned in Q4 2024.Mekong ASEAN
Sales: October orders versus seasonality
Management leans on its latest sales data. According to Vietcap, Vinamilk's October sales kept growing by double digits, new orders increased, and management sees the Q3 revenue slowdown as temporary.CafeF Q3 net revenue was VND 18,465 billion, up about 8.7–8.9%, slower than the 14.5% growth over nine months.Tin nhanh Chứng khoán
MBS sees Q4 as a seasonal low, one of its two stated reasons for the 2.7% decline. It also breaks Q3 down by segment: domestic revenue rose 9.1%, overseas subsidiaries 35%, and exports fell 10.6%.Tin nhanh Chứng khoán
The two sides use different kinds of evidence. Management has one month of data from the quarter; MBS relies on multi-year seasonal patterns. One month of double-digit growth does not prove the whole quarter will follow, and seasonality does not rule out a strong quarter.
Input costs: both see the pressure, they differ on its size
Here the two sides are closer than they look: management does not deny raw-material pressure. Per CafeF citing Vietcap, higher input prices continue to weigh on margins, costs will still affect part of Q4, and Vinamilk has locked in raw-material prices for roughly the next 3–6 months to limit volatility.CafeF
Q3 gross margin was 41.4%, down a slight 20 basis points year on year, while the nine-month gross margin was 42.5%, 120 basis points higher.Market Times MBS says the pressure falls mainly on overseas: domestic gross margin in Q3 rose 0.2 percentage points, while the overseas segment fell 2.8 points.Tin nhanh Chứng khoán
Why do raw-material prices bite with a delay? According to a Techcom Securities (TCBS) report, imported milk powder makes up about 50–65% of the cost of dairy products. The average whole milk powder price in Q2 2026 was USD 3,694 per tonne, up 6.6% from the Q4 2025 low, and with an inventory lag of about a quarter, that move starts flowing into cost of goods in the second half.Doanh Nhân Việt Nam
MBS expects skim and whole milk powder prices to keep rising through the second half of 2026, on supply worries tied to El Niño and Chinese restocking demand.Tin nhanh Chứng khoán That is its second reason for Q4: a narrower gross margin. So the real difference is one of degree. Management says it has locked prices for 3–6 months and still expects double-digit profit growth, while MBS argues the margin will narrow enough to push profit below last year's level.
Full-year 2026: both scenarios beat the plan
This is the least contested criterion. Q4 needs only about VND 1,223 billion to meet the VND 9,828 billion plan, less than half the lower of the two Q4 figures. MBS's full-year forecast is VND 11,324 billion, up 20.3%, and already includes the 2.7% Q4 decline.Người Quan Sát The comparison is 2025, when consolidated net profit was about VND 9,414 billion, down 0.4%.Mekong ASEAN Per Người Quan Sát, that would be a record profit for Vinamilk, and if management is right the full-year figure is higher still.
On dividends, the VND 2,500 per share interim payment, due November 26, is already decided and does not depend on Q4. Management expects the 2026 full-year dividend to match 2025, when Vinamilk paid a total of VND 4,350 per share in cash.CafeF With nearly 2.09 billion shares outstanding, that comes to roughly VND 9,090 billion, below the annual profit plan, so it is affordable under either scenario.
2027: where MBS is most cautious
The Q4 gap is the visible part; what MBS sees for next year deserves more attention. According to MBS, Vinamilk's 2027 revenue could reach VND 76,303 billion, up 6.4%, but profit only about VND 11,338 billion, up 0.1%. The reasons given are milk powder prices possibly 9–21% higher year on year, unfavorable exchange rates overseas, and higher selling costs. MBS projects the 2027 gross margin slipping from 41.6% to 41.1%.Người Quan Sát
MBS treats the pressure as cyclical. It expects milk powder prices to cool from the second half of 2027 as El Niño fades from Q2 2027 and Chinese demand normalizes, and forecasts 2028 profit up 11.1% to about VND 12,593 billion.Tin nhanh Chứng khoán
On the company side, Vinamilk explained its Q3 profit growth by a recovering domestic market, higher exports and a larger share of higher-value-added products.Vietbao
Q4 gross margin will show which side is closer
On the same criteria, the real difference comes down to one metric: how much of the gross margin holds in Q4 once milk powder prices have entered cost of goods. Full-year profit is no longer in question, since both numbers beat the plan.
Last year Vinamilk released its Q4 2025 investor bulletin on January 30, 2026.Finhay If the schedule is similar this year, Q4 2026 results would arrive in late January 2027. If Q4 profit exceeds about VND 3,110 billion and the gross margin holds, management was closer. If profit lands around VND 2,800 billion or below with a narrower margin, MBS was closer.