On November 6, 2026, the board of Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical (BSR, operator of the Dung Quat refinery) passed Resolution 5795/NQ-BSR, raising its 2026 consolidated net profit target to VND 18,579 billion.CafeF Many headlines called it "8.6 times" the old target. That comparison is correct, but incomplete. The new target is still about VND 6,323 billion below the profit BSR has already booked over nine months.CafeF
To see what the VND 18,579 billion figure means for a BSR shareholder, it helps to set it beside the reported results, and beside the revenue estimate BSR itself gave two days before the resolution.
The April plan was set low from the start
At the annual shareholder meeting on April 13, 2026, BSR put forward a consolidated net profit plan of about VND 2,162 billion, equal to pre-tax profit of VND 2,405 billion.Người Quan Sát It was a cautious target, set against a volatile oil market early in the year.
By the third-quarter report, that plan no longer matched reality. BSR's nine-month net profit reached VND 24,902 billion, 11.6 times the VND 2,155 billion of the same period in 2025.CafeF Realized profit was already more than ten times the April plan. From that point on, any "percent of plan achieved" calculation produces huge numbers that say nothing new.
Q3: profit built on oil prices and refining margins
In the third quarter, consolidated net profit came to VND 8,969 billion, nearly ten times a year earlier, on net revenue of VND 59,581 billion. For nine months, net revenue reached VND 164,217 billion, up 58%.CafeF
In an explanation cited by CafeF, BSR said the surge in Q3 profit came mainly from a favorable oil market. Dated Brent averaged USD 97 a barrel in the quarter, nearly USD 28 higher than a year earlier, while the spread between refined product prices and crude input costs also widened considerably. The Dung Quat plant ran at about 123% of design capacity on average over nine months, which lifted output.CafeF
So the main driver of this year's profit is the oil price and the refining spread, both set by world markets. The plant's own contribution was running at high utilization to capture a favorable stretch.
November 4: BSR estimates its own full-year revenue
At a session with Petrovietnam's annual supervision team in early November, BSR estimated 2026 consolidated revenue at about VND 223,991 billion, up 56% from 2025, according to Tuổi Trẻ on November 4. BSR also expects full-year production and sales volumes to exceed plan by 8–12%.FireAnt CafeF calculates that estimate as roughly 17% above the adjusted revenue plan.CafeF
What stands out is that the same company produced two revenue figures in the same week, and they point to different levels. The November 4 estimate sits about VND 33,000 billion above the November 6 plan.
November 6: the plan is reset, still below what is done
Resolution 5795/NQ-BSR changes the consolidated targets as follows, per CafeF and Người Quan Sát:Người Quan Sát
| 2026 consolidated target | April plan | November 6 plan |
|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | VND 154,140 billion | VND 190,831 billion |
| Pre-tax profit | VND 2,405 billion | VND 20,646 billion |
| Net profit | VND 2,162 billion | VND 18,579 billion |
The net profit target rises by VND 16,417 billion, 8.6 times the old level. The planned net margin on total revenue climbs from about 1.4% to 9.7%.CafeF
On standalone accounts, the resolution sets total revenue at VND 190,567 billion and net profit at VND 18,570 billion. Planned total assets rise from VND 86,589 billion to VND 108,062 billion, and planned equity from VND 58,219 billion to VND 77,163 billion. Investment capital needs for 2026 edge up from VND 8,578 billion to VND 8,633 billion, to be met from equity.Người Quan Sát
Set against actual results, the VND 18,579 billion target is only about three-quarters of the VND 24,902 billion earned in nine months. CafeF puts nine-month results at roughly 134% of the new plan.CafeF
Two readings that lead astray
The first reading treats "8.6 times" as fresh good news about profit. The multiple compares the new target with the old target, not with results. The profit it reflects already sits in the first-, second- and third-quarter reports, so the resolution tells us nothing new about BSR's earning power.
The second reading says a plan below profit already booked means the company expects a loss in Q4. Nothing supports that. A plan is an internal management target, not a quarter-by-quarter profit forecast. The evidence is in this very week: two days before the resolution, BSR itself estimated full-year revenue about 17% above the revenue plan the resolution sets. When one company issues two figures pointing at two different levels, the plan cannot serve as a yardstick for Q4.
What a BSR shareholder knows for certain is what has already happened: VND 24,902 billion of profit over nine months, coming mainly from oil prices and refining spreads, according to the company's own explanation. Q4 profit depends on those same two factors over the last three months of the year.
The next marker: Q4 2026 financial statements
BSR's actual full-year 2026 profit will be known when it publishes its consolidated Q4 2026 statements in early 2027. Reading them is simple. Full-year net profit above VND 24,902 billion means Q4 was profitable; below that level means Q4 was a loss. Against the VND 18,579 billion plan, the full-year result will reveal very little.
The line worth watching is Q4 profit on its own, set beside Q3's VND 8,969 billion, together with the average oil price and refining spread BSR cites in the accompanying explanation. The takeaway is straightforward: the VND 18,579 billion plan is an internal marker that results have already left behind, and the right yardstick for Q4 is those two market variables.