On November 4, 2026, the board of PetroVietnam Fertilizer and Chemicals Corporation (PVFCCo, ticker DPM) passed a resolution revising its 2026 business plan, and the company disclosed it on November 5. The consolidated net profit target was raised from VND 680 billion to VND 1,445 billion, an increase of 112.5%.Tin nhanh Chứng khoán
The numbers behind the decision are solid. Per the Q3 consolidated financial statements, DPM's nine-month net profit reached VND 1,371 billion, up 59% year on year and equal to 95% of the new target.CafeF That leaves only about VND 74 billion for Q4. This article sets that figure beside another fact from the same report: Q3 net profit on its own fell more than 81% from a year earlier.
What the new plan changes
On a consolidated basis, planned total revenue rises from VND 17,600 billion to VND 19,000 billion, up 8%. Pre-tax profit rises from VND 850 billion to VND 1,770 billion.CafeF Revenue edges up 8% while planned profit more than doubles, so the planned net margin goes from 3.9% to 7.6%, by Tin nhanh Chứng khoán's calculation.Tin nhanh Chứng khoán
On PVFCCo's standalone accounts (excluding subsidiaries), planned net profit rises from VND 647 billion to VND 1,375 billion.VnEconomy The investment budget was also raised, from about VND 1,164 billion to VND 1,399.5 billion. Most of the increase sits in financial investment and capital contributions to other companies, from VND 210 billion to VND 430 billion, while capital construction stays at VND 582.6 billion. All of it is funded from equity, with no borrowing.Tin nhanh Chứng khoán
A low original plan, results moving the other way
The VND 680 billion target approved by shareholders in April was well below 2025 net profit of VND 1,095 billion. In other words, management started the year planning for lower profit, and the first nine months went the opposite way.
Nine-month net revenue came to VND 16,737 billion, up 27%. Pre-tax profit reached VND 1,734 billion, up 57%. Against the old plan, DPM had delivered 204% of its pre-tax target and 202% of its after-tax target. Against the new plan, those ratios are 98% and 95%.CafeF Volumes also beat plan: by the company's own estimates, nine-month fertilizer sales topped 1.21 million tonnes, 22% above the nine-month plan. NPK Phu My alone sold more than 177,000 tonnes, close to its full-year target.Tin nhanh Chứng khoán
Profit concentrated in the first half, Q3 narrows
Nine-month profit was not spread evenly. In Q1 2026, DPM earned VND 410.8 billion after tax. Q2 brought VND 915.5 billion, the highest in the last eight quarters. Together, those two quarters make up nearly all of the nine-month total.
In Q3, net profit dropped to about VND 45 billion, down more than 81% from VND 239 billion in Q3 2025. Quarterly revenue still grew, to VND 4,128 billion, almost 11% higher year on year. Gross margin narrowed from 19.3% to 14.1% because cost of goods sold rose nearly 18%, faster than revenue.Người Quan Sát In the income statement, Q3 gross profit was about VND 137 billion lower than a year earlier, the largest share of the decline in pre-tax profit, while financial revenue fell by about VND 50 billion.
For the cause, there is one explanation from Vietcap Securities. As VnEconomy reported Vietcap's estimates, gross margin for urea alone fell 14 percentage points to 16.8%, as input gas prices rose 18% year on year while the average urea selling price fell 4%. Urea volumes sold in the quarter still rose 22%, but not enough to offset the narrower margin.VnEconomy Vietcap also says the nine-month driver was urea price: the average selling price rose 17% year on year, enough to cover a 3% drop in urea volume and a 47% rise in administrative costs. The factor that lifted first-half profit is also the one that turned in Q3.
Where the VND 74 billion sits against other quarters
Subtracting nine-month results from the new plan, Q4 needs only about VND 74 billion in net profit for DPM to reach VND 1,445 billion. Two reference points help.
The first is the quarter just ended. VND 74 billion is above Q3's roughly VND 45 billion, so the plan still assumes Q4 improves slightly on Q3.
The second is Q4 2025. Full-year 2025 profit minus the first three quarters of that year gives about VND 232 billion, and VND 74 billion is only about a third of that. Measured year on year, the new plan puts Q4 far lower.
Together, the two points show the new plan tracks results already booked rather than adding a growth target for the final quarter. That does not mean the company is doing badly: nine-month profit already exceeds all of 2025 and is up 59% year on year. It means the plan was built on the margin level of the most recent quarter.
Industry context: Ca Mau Fertilizer raised its plan the same day
On November 5, Petrovietnam Ca Mau Fertilizer (DCM) also announced a higher 2026 net profit plan, from VND 1,182 billion to VND 2,168 billion, according to Người Quan Sát. DCM's nine-month profit of VND 2,285 billion is already above the new target.Người Quan Sát So both leading producers set low original plans at the start of the year, then raised them to a level at or below results already achieved.
One factor that could affect coming quarters is the export tax. According to a sector report from Techcom Securities (TCBS), the Ministry of Finance has proposed cutting the urea export tax from 5% to 0% in a draft amendment to Decree 26/2023/ND-CP. If the draft is issued, TCBS estimates DPM's annual pre-tax profit could rise by about VND 93 billion. TCBS rates the benefit as moderate, since the domestic market still takes most of DPM's volume, even though the export share of its urea rose from about 20% in 2025 to 36% in the first half of 2026.Người Quan Sát On the exchange, DPM closed at VND 19,650 on November 5, down 0.76%.
Signals to watch
The thesis is simple: the VND 1,445 billion target tracks nine-month results closely, and what remains open is which branch Q4 falls into. The Q4/2026 financial statements will answer with two measures that need to be read together: Q4 net profit and gross margin.
If gross margin recovers and Q4 profit gets close to the roughly VND 232 billion of a year earlier, full-year profit will clear the new plan by a wide margin. If gross margin stays around 14% as in Q3 and Q4 profit is only about VND 45 billion, the full year would land near VND 1,416 billion, about VND 30 billion below the new plan but still above 2025 profit. Input gas prices and urea selling prices in the final months of the year are the two variables that decide which branch margin follows.