Vietnam Airlines (HVN on HoSE) reported nine-month 2026 consolidated net profit of VND 4,171.5 billion, down 41.9% from VND 7,174.4 billion in the same period of 2025.Mekong ASEAN That is still about 190 times the airline's full-year profit plan of VND 22 billion, and nine-month revenue rose 28.5% to VND 114,480 billion.DN Kinh tế xanh What matters is how that profit built up: Q1 profit alone was larger than the nine-month total, because the airline lost more than VND 606 billion after tax in Q2 and returned to a profit of just under VND 320 billion in Q3.Znews
One variable runs through all three quarters: jet fuel prices. In its explanatory letter attached to the Q3 financial statements, Vietnam Airlines said Q2 and Q3 results were hurt by fuel price volatility, mainly due to geopolitical tension in the Middle East.Mekong ASEAN This article walks through the year quarter by quarter to see how that shows up in the books.
Q1: Large profit before the fuel price spike
According to Vietnam Airlines management at the June shareholders' meeting, the Middle East conflict that began in March pushed fuel prices up very quickly and directly affected operations.VietTimes Most of Q1 therefore passed before the increase.
Subtracting Q3 profit from the nine-month figure leaves first-half net profit of roughly VND 3,850 billion.Mekong ASEAN With Q2 in the red by more than VND 600 billion, Q1 profit alone must have exceeded the entire first half. Q1 is the benchmark for the quarters that followed.
Q2: The first quarter to go backwards
Q2 is where fuel prices hit the books most clearly. Revenue still grew, but the airline swung to an after-tax loss of more than VND 606 billion.Znews
The 2026 plan was drawn up in the same environment. At the annual shareholders' meeting, Vietnam Airlines set targets of VND 138,899 billion in consolidated revenue and VND 22 billion in consolidated net profit. Management said the VND 22 billion assumed second-half fuel prices of around USD 120 a barrel.VietTimes In other words, the plan was written for half a year of expensive fuel. The 190-times figure should be read alongside that assumption, not as a sign of a normal year.
Q3: Added fuel cost exceeded added revenue
Q3 is where the mechanism is clearest, because the explanatory letter gives figures for Vietnam Airlines' standalone accounts (before consolidating subsidiaries). On a standalone basis, fuel costs in Q3 rose almost VND 4,360 billion, or 61.1% year on year. Total revenue and other income rose only 15%, or VND 3,785 billion.Znews The added fuel bill alone exceeded the added revenue by about VND 575 billion.
Including other costs, standalone total expenses rose 18.4%, or VND 4,482 billion. Vietnam Airlines (standalone) went from an after-tax profit of VND 412 billion in Q3 2025 to a loss of VND 284 billion in Q3 2026.Znews
The revenue mix explains why added revenue did not keep up. International service revenue rose almost 27%, while domestic revenue fell 8.4%.Znews International routes are pulling revenue up, but the domestic decline held overall growth to 15%.
Consolidated accounts point the same way, cushioned by finance income
Consolidated Q3 revenue was VND 39,168 billion, up 29%. Cost of goods sold rose 36% to VND 36,212 billion, so gross profit fell 25% to VND 2,867 billion.Mekong ASEAN Gross margin narrowed from about 12.5% in Q3 2025 to 7.3%.Znews
Finance income cushioned consolidated profit. Q3 finance revenue reached almost VND 634 billion, more than double a year earlier, including VND 303 billion of deposit and lending interest. Finance costs fell 41% to VND 526 billion. Consolidated Q3 net profit came to just under VND 320 billion, down 56% from VND 732 billion in Q3 2025.Mekong ASEAN
The standalone accounts show a VND 284 billion loss while the consolidated accounts show a profit of almost VND 320 billion, so everything outside the standalone accounts contributed about VND 600 billion. A year earlier, the gap between the two (VND 412 billion versus VND 732 billion) was about VND 320 billion.Znews Subsidiaries, associates and consolidation eliminations lifted group profit more than they did last year.
The positives in the nine-month numbers
Read fairly, the nine months were not all downhill. Nine-month revenue reached about 82.4% of the full-year revenue plan.Mekong ASEAN The airline carried more than 20 million passengers, up 4.3%, and 274,000 tonnes of cargo and parcels, up 9%.VietnamPlus
On the balance sheet, equity at 30 September 2026 was VND 10,249 billion, up 52% from the start of the year. Accumulated losses narrowed from VND 26,686 billion to VND 23,264 billion. Net operating cash flow for the nine months stayed positive at VND 8,477 billion, though 9% lower year on year.Mekong ASEAN Management expects to clear accumulated losses in 2030-2032 before considering dividends.VietTimes
Why fuel is the strongest explanation
Three explanations compete for the profit decline despite strong revenue growth: fuel costs, weaker domestic revenue, and other operating costs such as selling expenses, which rose 9.5% in Q3. The numbers favor the first. About VND 4,360 billion of added fuel cost makes up most of the VND 4,482 billion rise in standalone expenses. Weaker domestic revenue reduced the offset but did not create the cost. General and administrative expenses actually fell 3.5% in Q3.Mekong ASEAN
On crude, Brent closed at USD 112.91 a barrel on 30 October, about 15.2% above USD 98.03 on 30 September. That is crude, not the jet fuel the airline buys, though the two usually move together.
What to watch in Q4
After three quarters, the position is fairly clear. Nine-month profit remains large and far above plan, but most of it was earned in Q1. As long as jet fuel stays high, quarterly profit depends on whether revenue, mainly from international routes, can keep pace with fuel costs. That is the thesis here, and it only changes if gross margin improves.
The simplest yardstick is consolidated gross margin. If Q4 comes in above Q3's 7.3%, added revenue has begun to catch up with fuel. At or below 7.3%, Q4 will be another thin quarter compared with Q1. In Q4 the airline is also opening Hanoi - Ahmedabad, Hanoi - Hangzhou and Da Nang - Singapore routes, so international revenue is still expanding.VietnamPlus The Q4 financial statements, expected in January 2027, will provide the answer.