From 3 p.m. on October 22, a litre of diesel costs VND 4,337 more than a litre of E10 gasoline. A week earlier the gap was about VND 2,077. Both fuels went through the same pricing cycle and moved in opposite directions, and the people paying the difference are the ones who fill up with diesel: freight truckers, farm machinery operators and fishing boats.
What retail prices did from 3 p.m. on October 22
According to a notice from the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Finance, published by VietnamPlus on October 22, the maximum retail prices from 3 p.m. are:VietnamPlus- E10 RON95-III gasoline down VND 1,816 a litre, to no more than VND 25,213 a litre.
- E5 RON92 gasoline down VND 1,610 a litre, to no more than VND 25,361 a litre. E10 is therefore VND 148 a litre cheaper than E5.
- 0.05S diesel up VND 444 a litre, to no more than VND 29,550 a litre.
- Mazut fuel oil up VND 1,238 a kg, to VND 23,373 a kg.
At the previous review on the afternoon of October 15, the ceiling for E10 was VND 27,029 a litre and for diesel VND 29,106 a litre.Tạp chí Công Thương Side by side, the diesel-over-E10 gap went from about VND 2,077 to VND 4,337 a litre, more than double in seven days. Some outlets round the figures; Znews, for example, reports E10 at VND 25,210 and diesel at VND 29,550.Znews This article uses the exact figures from the official notice.
Each fuel follows its own refined-product price
Domestic retail prices are based on the average world refined-product price between two pricing reviews, and each fuel has its own refined-product price. Over the seven days from October 15 to October 22, the two prices pulled clearly apart. According to figures from the two ministries, relayed by Báo Tin tức, the RON95 gasoline used to blend E10 averaged USD 133.488 a barrel, down USD 12.222 or 8.39%. 0.05S diesel averaged USD 168.012 a barrel, up USD 2.898 or 1.76%. Mazut averaged USD 800.640 a tonne, also higher.Báo Tin tức
Put differently, a barrel of refined diesel now costs about USD 34.5 more than a barrel of RON95 gasoline. Domestic retail prices simply carry that distance through to the pump.
Another explanation needs ruling out: the price stabilization fund. This cycle the authorities set aside VND 300 a litre for biofuel gasoline, VND 0 for diesel, and made no payouts from the fund.VietnamPlusThat set-aside makes gasoline fall by less than it otherwise would have, so it narrows the gap slightly rather than widening it. Most of the gap therefore comes from the world market.
Crude oil did not move with gasoline either. On October 22 Brent rose USD 2.82 to USD 111.64 a barrel, its highest in nearly five months.VietnamPlusThat is a single session, while the refined-product prices above are seven-day averages, so the two cannot be compared directly. Still, crude rising while refined gasoline gets cheaper suggests the story this time lies largely at the refining stage, where diesel and gasoline have their own supply and demand.
Why world diesel is holding its price
The international sources this week all point the same way: the diesel market is tighter than the gasoline market.
The force cited most often is diesel supply being squeezed from several directions. According to IndexBox on October 22, China's fuel exports are lower, Russian refineries are under Ukrainian attack, and geopolitical conflict has pushed buyers in Asia, Oceania, Europe and the US West Coast to look for more spot cargoes.IndexBox
The gap between refined-product and crude prices shows that scarcity clearly. The spread between Singapore gasoil and Dubai crude stood at USD 66.91 a barrel in the October 20 assessment. That is down from the USD 83.02 peak on September 16, but still very high. South Korea, a major diesel exporter in Asia, is keeping its refined-product export cap at the 2025 level to prioritize domestic supply.IndexBox
Inventories are not much of a cushion either. In the October 21 session, world oil prices rose partly because US stocks of crude and refined products declined.VietnamPlusThe Northern Hemisphere winter is approaching, when heating oil, from the same distillate family as diesel, is in heavier use.
Gasoline looks different. Rappler reported on October 20 that the Philippines also cut gasoline prices and raised diesel prices in the same week, citing more plentiful gasoline supply in Asia while diesel remained short because of low inventories.Rappler Vietnam is not an outlier: this is a regional move.
The limits of this explanation should be stated plainly. The sources show diesel is structurally tighter than gasoline, but none isolates the contribution of each factor in the exact seven days from October 15 to 21. Constrained supply is the main force cited most often. Low inventories and the approach of winter are secondary forces that make it hard for the market to cool quickly.
Who is paying the difference
Motorbike riders and drivers of gasoline cars are the winners this cycle. A motorbike taking 4 litres of E10 pays about VND 7,260 less than last week, based on the VND 1,816 a litre cut.
Diesel users move the other way. Diesel is the main fuel for trucks, coaches, tractor-trailers, ploughs, harvesters, water pumps, generators and most fishing boats. With a VND 444 a litre increase, a truck taking 200 litres pays about VND 88,800 more per fill. That is not large per fill, but for a fleet or a boat on a long sea trip, fuel is counted in thousands of litres and the extra cost accumulates accordingly.
For years diesel was usually cheaper than gasoline, so truck owners and boat owners got used to budgeting around that baseline. No published data yet shows freight rates or farm-gate prices changing in response to this pricing cycle, so this article makes no claim on that.
Part of the extra cost is being absorbed by fuel distributors. According to VietnamPlus, 14 wholesale traders are selling VND 300 to 350 a litre below the regulated price.VietnamPlusPetrolimex alone is keeping its price VND 300 a litre below the regulated price through October 29.Tạp chí Công Thương At those stations, the VND 444 diesel increase is almost fully offset this week.
What the next pricing review will tell us
The next review is expected on the afternoon of October 29, which is also when Petrolimex's extra VND 300 discount expires. It will use average refined-product prices from October 22 to October 28. Whether the VND 4,337 gap holds depends on two refined-product figures: diesel at about USD 168 a barrel and RON95 gasoline at about USD 133.5 a barrel.
- If refined diesel falls faster than gasoline, for example when Russian cargoes return to the market, the gap will narrow.
- If gasoline keeps falling while diesel stays flat, the gap could widen from here.
- If the distributors' extra discount expires without being extended, diesel users will see pump prices higher than the cycle's own adjustment alone.
The available evidence is not enough to say whether the gap will narrow or widen. The signal most worth watching next week is the Singapore gasoil versus Dubai crude spread, now at USD 66.91 a barrel. As long as it stays high, diesel will struggle to get cheaper in step with gasoline, whichever way crude moves.