By BSC Research's calculation, for FPT to stay in the VN-Diamond basket after the April 2027 review, its foreign ownership must average above 37% from October 2026 through the end of March 2027. That is more than 8 percentage points above the current level.CafeF FPT is not alone. The same report puts MSB and PNJ on the watch list too.
The three companies could hardly differ more: a technology group, a bank and a jewelry retailer. What ties them together is how the VN-Diamond basket picks and keeps stocks. It removes names through two different doors, and each company is moving toward one of them. One caveat up front: this is a brokerage forecast, based on data as of 30 September 2026 and information updated through 4 October 2026. It is not a decision by the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE).
What it takes to stay in VN-Diamond
Put simply, VN-Diamond is built for stocks where foreign investors already hold most of the share they are allowed to hold. So the key test is not company size, but how much foreigners own relative to that stock's own foreign ownership limit. According to forecast reports, a stock already in the basket must keep that ratio at 65% or higher.Người Quan Sát The bar for a new entrant is higher still, which is why BSC expects no additions in the October 2026 review.Người Quan Sát
The second test is profit. The basket looks at 12-quarter EPS: cumulative after-tax profit over the last 12 quarters divided by shares outstanding. If that figure turns negative, a stock can be moved to a "watch-out" list and formally removed at the following review, as BSC describes for PNJ.
Neither test asks whether the business had a good or bad recent quarter. One measures foreign investor behavior, the other measures three years of cumulative results. A stock can slip out of the basket because either one turns.
FPT and MSB: foreigners holding less
FPT and MSB are heading into the danger zone by the same road. According to BSC, foreign ownership at FPT has fallen notably since the start of the year,CafeF and at MSB it has dropped sharply since May 2026.Người Quan Sát
One detail in BSC's FPT math is easy to miss. The 37% is not a one-day threshold but an average over the next six months. The recent months of lower foreign holdings have already dragged the running average down, so the remaining period has to make up for it with a much higher level, more than 8 percentage points above today. Foreign investors would need to do more than stop selling; they would have to return as significant net buyers.
For MSB, BSC gives no specific figure. It only says the bank could enter the watch-out list at the April 2027 review if foreign ownership does not improve over the next six months.Người Quan Sát
Why are foreigners holding less in these two? There are at least three plausible explanations. Foreign funds may have reassessed each company's own outlook. Foreign capital may be leaving Vietnam broadly, with large, liquid names like FPT bearing the brunt. Or funds may simply be rotating into other Vietnamese stocks. BSC's report records only the outcome, a falling ownership ratio, and does not say which cause dominates. Whatever the cause, the basket's rules treat the result the same way.
There is also a feedback loop worth noting. When a stock is removed, ETFs tracking the index must sell their holdings. If some of those funds are foreign, their selling pushes foreign ownership down further. That is an inference from the mechanism; there is no direct measurement for FPT or MSB.
PNJ: a planned loss weighing on 12-quarter EPS
PNJ goes through the other door, the profit test. According to BSC, PNJ has revised its 2026 business plan to an after-tax loss of VND 6,271 billion.CafeF If that figure shows up in the 2026 financial statements, PNJ's 12-quarter EPS could turn negative at the April 2027 review. The reason is simple arithmetic: 12-quarter EPS pools three years of profit, so one sufficiently large loss year can wipe out the earnings of the other two.
BSC's scenario has two steps. PNJ could enter the watch-out list at the April 2027 review and be formally removed in October 2027.Người Quan Sát The roughly six months between the two is the period during which the watch-out list acts as a warning stage before a full exit.
The scenario carries a condition: the loss must actually appear in the 2026 financial statements. A plan is a plan, and year-end results can differ. How HOSE applies the EPS test to PNJ will also depend on that review's official outcome. Ironically, in the most recent rebalancing PNJ sits on the buying side: BSC estimates ETFs could buy about VND 60 billion of PNJ shares in the October 2026 review.CafeF
The October 2026 review: only KDH may leave
Before the 2027 milestones, the nearest review already has a calendar. Under the new rules, HOSE is expected to announce the October 2026 VN-Diamond review results on 2 November, with the new portfolio effective from 16 November.CafeF The schedule follows HOSE's restructuring of its index rulebook into two tiers, a general rulebook plus 13 specific rule documents, and its alignment of announcement and effective dates across indices.Người Quan Sát
In this review, BSC forecasts that KDH could be removed, leaving 17 stocks in the basket.Người Quan Sát If so, funds could sell all of their more than 4 million KDH shares, worth about VND 62 billion.CafeF FPT is not being removed, but it still carries the largest expected sale value: about 4.36 million shares, or VND 274.5 billion. MSB is also on the selling side at about VND 141.1 billion, over 9.9 million shares.CafeF These are funds trimming weights as they rebalance, which differs from selling out entirely when a stock is removed.
What ETF holders will see change
Five ETFs currently track VN-Diamond: FUEVFVND, FUEMAVND, FUEBFVND, FUEKIVND and FUEABVND, with combined assets of about VND 11,115 billion.CafeF Holders do not need to do anything for the portfolio to change, because index-tracking funds adjust automatically after each review. If KDH is removed, the funds will no longer hold it after the 16 November effective date, and its weight will be redistributed across the remaining 17 stocks. Given KDH's small weight, this barely changes the portfolio's character.
A larger change, if any, sits in 2027. If FPT, MSB and PNJ all follow BSC's worst-case scenario, the basket would lose a technology stock, a bank and a retailer at once. Should new members be needed in April 2027, BSC sees HCM and SAB as potential candidates,CafeF so the funds' holdings could tilt toward other sectors. Buying an ETF means buying the index's rules, not a fixed set of stocks. For shareholders of the at-risk names, the direct consequence is selling pressure from funds at the moment of the rebalance. All figures here are BSC estimates; official results come only when HOSE announces them.
Milestones to watch
The evidence so far is enough to say that FPT and MSB depend on foreign capital flows, while PNJ depends on its 2026 results. It is not enough to say which stock will leave. Three milestones will fill in the rest.
The nearest is 2 November 2026, when HOSE is expected to announce the October review, revealing whether KDH actually leaves; the new portfolio takes effect on 16 November. For FPT and MSB, the signal is foreign ownership between now and the end of March 2027. For FPT, the level to watch is a 37% average: if the ratio stays flat at today's level, the risk of entering the watch-out list in April 2027 is clear, while a steady climb toward 37% lowers it. For PNJ, the signal is the 2026 financial statements: a loss close to the planned VND 6,271 billion would make the April 2027 watch-out and October 2027 removal scenario far more plausible.