Nasdaq Composite just closed its 10th consecutive winning session as of April 14, 2026, finishing at 23,389 points. This marks the longest winning streak since 2023, with a cumulative gain of roughly 8% over 10 sessions and a 6.2% advance in the past week alone. The big picture shows three layers of drivers converging simultaneously, but two risks ahead could shift the landscape at any moment.
Q1 Earnings Season Opens Strong
The Q1/2026 earnings season kicked off with positive signals from two of Wall Street’s leading investment banks.
Goldman Sachs reported results on April 13 with EPS of $17.55, beating expectations by 6.56%. Revenue reached $17.2 billion, with the Equities trading division hitting a new quarterly record at $5.3 billion.Goldman Sachs
Citigroup reported on April 14 with even more impressive results: EPS of $3.06, exceeding forecasts by $0.43. Revenue came in at $24.63 billion, $1.04 billion above expectations. Net income reached $5.79 billion.CNBC
When two top investment banks both beat expectations, the market receives a signal that core business activities — trading, M&A advisory, and asset management — remain robust despite high interest rates and geopolitical instability. This alleviates concerns about an earnings recession, the biggest fear among growth stock investors.
Oil Drops Sharply as Peace Hopes Cool Inflation
Brent crude fell sharply last week, dropping from $109.27/barrel on April 7 to $97.66/barrel on April 14, a 10.6% decline in just one week. On April 8 alone, Brent plunged 13.29% as markets reacted to expectations of renewed peace negotiations between the US and Iran.
President Trump declared on April 14 that Iran had “proactively reached out to make a deal,” pushing oil prices further down.Yahoo Finance
Falling oil benefits Nasdaq through two mechanisms. First, lower energy costs reduce inflation expectations, easing pressure on the Fed to maintain high rates, which supports valuations for growth stocks sensitive to discount rates. Second, reduced geopolitical risk restores “risk-on” sentiment, shifting capital from defensive assets like gold and bonds into tech equities.
AI Capital Flows: The Deepest Structural Driver
If earnings are the short-term catalyst and oil is the medium-term catalyst, then capital flows into AI and semiconductors represent the deepest long-term structural driver lifting Nasdaq. Throughout the 10-session winning streak, semiconductors, AI software, and cloud computing consistently led the advance.
Nasdaq had corrected significantly in March 2026 on war and inflation fears. But as Q1 earnings began showing AI revenue still accelerating, “buy the dip” flows returned forcefully. The 10-session run from March 31 to April 14 was essentially a post-correction recovery, powered by all three driver layers converging at once.
VIX Drops: Wall Street Worries Less
The VIX fell to 18.59 points on April 14, its lowest level in over a month.Yahoo Finance Compared to its peak above 25 in early April, the VIX has declined roughly 26% in two weeks. A VIX below 20 reflects normal market conditions, but it can also signal complacency: when the market ignores risks, an unexpected shock can trigger an outsized reaction.
Risk 1: March PPI Hits Highest Level Since 2023
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for March 2026, released on April 14, showed headline PPI rising 0.5% month-over-month, above expectations. PPI YoY reached 4.0%, the highest since February 2023.Continuum Economics The primary driver was an 8.5% surge in energy input costs, reflecting the lingering impact of the Iran conflict pushing oil prices higher in March.
The positive news is that core PPI (excluding food and energy) rose only 0.1% MoM, suggesting inflation pressure remains concentrated in energy rather than spreading broadly across the economy. However, if oil prices reverse upward due to a breakdown in Iran negotiations, the situation could change rapidly.
Risk 2: The Fed’s “Wait and See” Stance
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on April 13 that the Fed is “doing the right thing by sitting and watching” and should “see how the economy develops” before cutting rates.Benzinga He argued the US economy was “very strong” in January-February and expressed confidence that recent price increases would not “embed” into inflation expectations.Semafor
This statement is notable because it marks a shift from the prior pattern of the Trump administration pressuring the Fed to cut rates. Now Bessent himself is endorsing the Fed holding steady. This signals the Fed may keep rates higher for longer than expected, creating pressure on rate-sensitive tech stocks.
Broader Markets: Dow and VN-Index Also Rise
Beyond Nasdaq, the Dow Jones rose 3.9% for the week, closing at 48,419 points on April 14. In Vietnam, the VN-Index gained 0.95% to 1,775.65 points on April 14, with 183 stocks advancing and 5 hitting the ceiling.
The synchronized rally across markets reflects a global “risk-on” environment: when Wall Street rallies strongly, foreign capital flows back to Asia, indirectly supporting emerging markets like Vietnam.
Three Drivers Converge, but Two Risks Loom
Nasdaq’s 10-session winning streak was supported by three converging driver layers: strong Q1 earnings, falling oil prices on peace expectations, and structural AI capital flows. Among these, AI flows are the most durable, while oil declines and earnings are short-term catalysts prone to reversal.
Three risk triggers worth monitoring over the next two weeks:
- Iran negotiations collapse, pushing oil back above $110 and reigniting inflation expectations, which would pressure Nasdaq.
- PPI/CPI continue exceeding forecasts, keeping the Fed at high rates longer and weighing on tech valuations.
- Q1 earnings from major tech (Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, expected late April): if AI revenue disappoints, the winning streak could end.
A roughly 8% gain in 10 sessions also means the probability of short-term profit-taking has increased. Nasdaq can maintain its momentum if tech earnings continue beating forecasts and oil stabilizes below $100/barrel, but a shock from Iran or inflation data will be the real test for this rally.
