The big picture reveals a fascinating paradox: amid global turmoil from geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices, FDI flows into Vietnam not only held steady but hit a new record. Total registered FDI in Q1/2026 reached $15.2 billion, up 42.9% year-over-year.VnEconomy Disbursed capital reached an estimated $5.41 billion, up 9.1% and marking a five-year Q1 high.Fili
Capital flows are shifting, and Vietnam is clearly the preferred destination.
Global Instability, Vietnam Still Attracts
Q1/2026 closed against a backdrop of multiple shocks. The Strait of Hormuz blockade pushed Brent crude to $97.48/barrel, while US-Iran tensions pulled global financial markets into a spiral of uncertainty. Many forecasts predicted capital flight from emerging markets, but the opposite occurred.
Three core factors sustained Vietnam’s appeal. First, the China+1 trend accelerated as the US-China trade war forced multinationals to diversify supply chains. Second, FTSE Russell confirmed Vietnam’s upgrade to emerging market status effective September 2026, attracting institutional capital looking beyond short-term volatility. Third, Vietnam maintained stable interest rates, controlled exchange rates, and continued improving its business environment with new resolutions on special economic zones and high-tech incentives.
Two Mega-Projects That Changed the Game
The real turning point came in March 2026, when total registered capital reached $9.17 billion, more than doubling year-over-year.VnEconomy The main driver came from two billion-dollar projects.
Samsung Vietnam Semiconductor in Thai Nguyen registered over $4 billion in capital, focused on packaging and testing semiconductor materials and equipment.Nha Dau Tu The project was registered through Samsung Semiconductor Asia Holdings (Singapore), which is why Singapore rose to become the top investor by country in the quarter.
AIC-Kinh Bac AI Data Center in Ho Chi Minh City, with total investment of approximately $2.1 billion, is expected to break ground on April 30, 2026, with an initial capacity of 50 MW equivalent to 28,000 GPUs.VnEconomy These two projects alone accounted for over $6 billion, or nearly 40% of total registered capital for the entire quarter.
The last time Vietnam recorded two billion-dollar projects in a single quarter was during 2022-2023, when LG and Samsung continuously expanded in Hai Phong and Bac Ninh. The key difference this time: capital is concentrated in semiconductors and AI data centers rather than low-value assembly and processing.
Capital Structure: Singapore and South Korea Dominate
Among 52 countries and territories with new investment projects, Singapore led with $5.32 billion, accounting for 52% of total newly registered capital. South Korea ranked second with $3.68 billion at 35.9%.VnEconomy However, by actual origin (Samsung registered via Singapore), South Korea is effectively the largest investor.
By sector, manufacturing continued to lead with $7.07 billion, comprising 69% of total newly registered capital. Electricity, gas, and water production and distribution reached $2.28 billion at 22.3%.VnEconomy Notably, foreign investors’ capital contributions and share purchases reached $2.66 billion, 2.3 times the same period, showing that M&A activity has also revived.
Beyond the two mega-projects, FDI also spread at the mid-tier level. The POSCO Future M project at Song Cong 2 Industrial Park (Thai Nguyen) invested over $400 million in battery materials production, exemplifying the China+1 trend in EV supply chains.Bao Dau Tu In Bac Ninh, Seojin Vietnam (South Korea) increased its capital by $453.8 million, raising total investment to $760 million.KTTC Magazine
Direct Beneficiary Stocks
Strong FDI flows into manufacturing created a clear chain of beneficiaries on the stock market. Industrial park stocks were the first to benefit as demand for land leases and factory construction surged.
IDC (IDICO) led the pack with a 36.94% gain in Q1/2026, currently priced at VND 48,400 with a market cap of VND 18,400 billion. Its large southern industrial park land bank is a core advantage. SIP (Saigon VRG) rose 17.69%, benefiting from its integrated industrial ecosystem in Binh Duong. KBC (Kinh Bac) declined 8.07% in Q1 due to short-term volatility but is a direct partner in the $2.1 billion AIC data center project, with its price recovering to VND 33,950 on April 10.
Logistics and port stocks benefited indirectly as manufacturing FDI drives export demand. GMD (Gemadept) gained 31.19% in Q1/2026 with significantly improved liquidity, currently at VND 72,600. VSC (Vietnam Container) rose 20.92% to VND 25,000. Construction stocks diverged sharply: CTD (Coteccons) gained 14.48% on industrial infrastructure backlog, while HBC and BMP declined on input cost pressures.
Risks to Watch
Despite the bright FDI picture, investors should remain alert to several risks. Concentration risk is the biggest concern: the Samsung Semiconductor and AIC-Kinh Bac projects account for nearly 40% of total registered capital. Excluding these two, FDI growth would be far more modest.
Adjusted registered capital fell 55.1% year-over-year, suggesting existing FDI enterprises are more cautious about expansion.VnEconomy Brent crude at $97.48/barrel also pressures transportation and production costs across the entire supply chain.
Capital Flow Outlook
The VN-Index reached 1,750 points on April 10, gaining 13.32 points (+0.77%) as foreign investors returned to net buying. Capital flows are prioritizing FDI beneficiaries and the FTSE upgrade narrative.
With disbursed capital at a five-year high and multiple billion-dollar projects underway, the big picture shows Vietnam entering a new phase of FDI quality transformation. No longer just a destination for cheap processing, Vietnam is attracting capital into semiconductors, AI data centers, and high-tech materials. Industrial park, logistics, and infrastructure construction stocks have solid growth foundations in coming quarters, but investors should be selective and closely monitor actual disbursement progress rather than focusing solely on registered figures.
Thanh Ha, Investify
