Looking at the numbers, the afternoon session on April 6, 2026 tells a clear story: GEX stock surged 5.10% to VND 37,100 per share with trading volume of 4.5 million units. Just three days earlier, the stock was under heavy selling pressure as the market digested news of a “21.8% profit decline” in the 2026 plan. What’s notable is that money flowed back once investors began reading GELEX’s financial picture correctly.
The comparison trap: the most common mistake reading business plans
After the Annual General Meeting (AGM) on April 1, 2026, many investors reacted negatively upon seeing the 2026 pre-tax profit plan at just VND 3,615 billion, down 21.8% from the 2025 actual result.Tin nhanh CK On April 2 and 3, GEX dropped 2.43% and 2.35% respectively.
However, this is a misleading comparison. In 2025, GELEX achieved consolidated pre-tax profit of VND 4,621 billion, the highest in the group’s history, exceeding the original plan by a staggering 52%.Tin nhanh CK In other words, the 2025 plan was only around VND 3,040 billion, but actual results came in 1.5 times higher.
When compared correctly — plan versus plan — the VND 3,615 billion figure for 2026 actually represents a roughly 19% increase over the 2025 plan. This is meaningful growth, not a decline.
GELEX management explained that the plan was built conservatively, reflecting pressure from borrowing costs amid elevated capital rates, plus operating costs for new projects still in early-stage ramp-up.Tin nhanh CK GELEX has a well-established “tradition” of setting conservative targets and then far exceeding them: the 52% outperformance in 2025 is the clearest proof.
The 53% distribution package: GELEX’s largest ever
At the AGM, shareholders approved a profit distribution package totaling 53%, the highest in the company’s history.Vietstock The package includes three components: 8% cash dividend (VND 722 billion already advanced since September 2025), 25% stock dividend (25 new shares for every 100 held), and 20% bonus shares issued from equity surplus.
After the issuance is completed, GELEX’s charter capital is expected to increase from VND 9,023 billion to VND 13,084 billion, a 45% expansion.Tin nhanh CK This package serves a dual purpose: rewarding current shareholders with cash and stock while building the capital base from internal resources to support larger investments ahead.
GELEX Electric: the profit backbone contributing 92%
The key driver behind GELEX’s record 2025 results is GELEX Electric (GEE), the subsidiary specializing in electrical equipment and energy. In 2025, GELEX Electric achieved pre-tax profit of VND 4,246 billion, nearly double the prior year, accounting for 91.9% of the group’s consolidated profit.CafeF
GELEX Electric’s revenue reached VND 25,463 billion, up 20.5% year-over-year, driven by its core subsidiaries: CADIVI (electrical cables), THIBIDI (transformers), EMIC (electrical measurement equipment), and CFT (copper wire).CafeF These companies are direct beneficiaries of Vietnam’s booming electrical infrastructure investment cycle, from smart grids to renewable energy.
For 2026, GELEX Electric targets revenue exceeding VND 27,000 billion, maintaining its double-digit growth trajectory.CafeF
Nguyen Van Tuan returns as Chairman
Another significant development at the AGM was the election of Mr. Nguyen Van Tuan as Chairman of the Board for the 2026–2031 term.CafeF Mr. Tuan has been with GELEX since its early transformation days and has committed to serving the full term. This is a positive signal for governance stability, a factor the market consistently values when pricing equities.
Q1/2026: an above-plan start
According to information disclosed at the AGM, Q1/2026 business results are estimated at consolidated revenue exceeding VND 10,000 billion, up over 20% year-over-year, while pre-tax profit reached approximately VND 700 billion, up around 10% and ahead of plan.Tin nhanh CK These figures indicate a positive trend from the start of the year and raise the likelihood that GELEX will once again exceed its full-year 2026 plan, following the “familiar script” shareholders have witnessed for years.
Three risks investors should weigh
Despite the broadly positive picture, investors need to stay clear-eyed about three risk factors.
Share dilution: The 53% issuance package will increase outstanding shares by 45%, from approximately 902 million to over 1.3 billion shares. If profit only reaches the planned VND 3,615 billion without the dramatic outperformance seen in 2025, earnings per share (EPS) will be significantly diluted. Investors should closely monitor 2026 ROE to assess capital efficiency post-expansion.
GELEX Electric dependency: With over 91% of profit coming from a single segment, the group carries high concentration risk. Any disruption in the electrical equipment sector — from copper raw material prices, import competition, to policy changes — directly impacts consolidated earnings.
2026 dividend commitment is only 10%: While the 2025 package reached 53%, the dividend plan for 2026 commits to just 10%.Tin nhanh CK Investors buying in with expectations of another “blockbuster package” should adjust their expectations accordingly.
Read the numbers right, invest in the right direction
The GELEX case is a textbook example of how the market reacts when it hasn’t analyzed the details. A 2026 profit plan down 21.8% versus 2025 actuals sounds alarming, but in context — 2025 actuals were a historic record exceeding the plan by 52%, the 2026 plan is actually up 19% versus the 2025 plan, the 53% distribution package creates shareholder value, and GELEX Electric is in a boom cycle — the picture is entirely different.
The strong return of capital pushing GEX up 5.10% on the afternoon of April 6 shows the market gradually “correcting” its initial view. However, the 45% capital dilution, concentration risk in GELEX Electric, and the more modest 2026 dividend commitment are factors that warrant careful consideration before making a decision.
