This policy opens a new chapter for Vietnam’s steel industry. On April 2, 2026, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) issued Decision 612/QD-BCT, imposing a provisional 27.83% anti-circumvention duty on hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel with widths of 1,880–2,300mm imported from China, effective from April 17, 2026. The scope covers 24 HS codes, excluding certain specialized grades and steel with carbon content above 0.30%.Thoi bao Tai chinh
Crucially, this is not a new anti-dumping duty but rather a supplementary measure targeting tariff circumvention that has been occurring since early 2025. Starting in February 2025, MoIT had imposed provisional anti-dumping duties of 19.38–27.83% on HRC from China and India, but only for steel narrower than 1,880mm. Almost immediately, wide-width HRC (1,900–2,300mm) began flooding into Vietnam in abnormal volumes — same product, same end use, but deliberately sized to fall outside the tariff boundary.
From 8,000 to 215,000 Tons: A Loophole Exploited Systematically
The numbers reveal the severity of circumvention. In the first half of 2025, wide-width HRC imports (1,880mm and above) from China totaled nearly 650,000 tons, 15 times the same period of the prior year.Bao Chinh phu In June 2025 alone, the figure surged to 215,000 tons — a 26-fold increase from just 8,000 tons in June 2024, causing an estimated revenue loss of approximately $90 million (VND 2,300 billion).Bao Dau tu
A 26-fold increase in one year is not a normal market fluctuation. It is a clear sign of organized trade diversion to evade duties. This prompted Hoa Phat and Formosa Ha Tinh to file investigation petitions in September 2025. MoIT officially launched the case in October 2025, and after nearly six months of investigation, Decision 612 was issued to close the loophole.
Three Layers of Impact on Listed Companies
Hoa Phat: HRC Producer as Direct Beneficiary
Hoa Phat (HPG) stands to benefit the most from this policy. As Vietnam’s largest HRC producer, its Dung Quat integrated steel complex is advancing toward full capacity with a target of 12 million tons of steel annually. HPG is fully self-sufficient in supply and has zero dependence on imports, so the anti-circumvention tariff narrows the price advantage of Chinese products and helps Hoa Phat reclaim domestic HRC market share.
At its 2026 AGM, Hoa Phat set targets of VND 210 trillion in revenue and VND 22 trillion in after-tax profit, a 42% increase over 2025.Tin nhanh Chung khoan The new tariff is one of the key catalysts making these targets more achievable, as domestic HRC prices are lifted when cheap import supply is restricted.
Hoa Sen and Nam Kim: The Input Cost Challenge
Hoa Sen (HSG) and Nam Kim (NKG) use HRC as their primary raw material for galvanized and coated steel products. When cheap import sources are restricted, input costs tend to rise. However, the impact is not entirely negative: existing low-cost inventory provides a short-term buffer, and if finished product prices adjust upward accordingly, profit margins can be maintained.
The April 2, 2026 trading session showed a positive signal: the metals sector was the only industry with all 18 stocks gaining, indicating broad market optimism for the sector in the near term. HPG reached VND 27,250 (+0.37%), while HSG and NKG traded at VND 14,900 and VND 13,900 respectively.
Downstream: Steel Structures and Construction
Steel fabrication and pipe companies also face cost pressure as domestic HRC prices rise. However, demand from major public investment projects such as Long Thanh Airport and the North–South Expressway provides room for price pass-through. With the government accelerating public investment disbursement, downstream firms have a reasonable basis for adjusting selling prices without losing orders.
Global HRC Prices Reinforce the Protection Narrative
Global HRC prices currently stand above $1,071 per ton, up nearly 5% month-over-month and approximately 15% over the past three months (from an average of around $993/ton in Q1 2026). This upward price trend combined with the new tariff barrier creates a dual effect: simultaneously reducing cheap import supply and raising the price floor for domestic producers. For HPG, these are favorable conditions for improving profit margins in the coming quarters.
Long-term Policy Signals for Investors
Decision 612 is a provisional duty, but based on precedent (the 2025 anti-dumping duty carries a 5-year term) and the broader trend of protecting domestic manufacturing against cheap Chinese steel, the measure is highly likely to be maintained and potentially expanded. The policy trajectory shows consistency: from provisional anti-dumping duties (February 2025) to the official 5-year duty (July 2025), to launching circumvention investigations (October 2025), and now the 27.83% anti-circumvention tariff (April 2026).
For investors, this is a clear signal that policy is systematically protecting the domestic steel industry. HPG remains the most direct beneficiary given its position as Vietnam’s only large-scale HRC producer. For HSG and NKG, the key factor to monitor is their ability to pass through higher input costs to finished products and inventory developments in Q2–Q3 2026: if galvanized steel prices adjust upward in line with input costs, margins will be preserved; otherwise, margin compression will become more apparent.
VN-Index closed at 1,694.82 points (−0.48%) on April 2, 2026, but the metals sector bucked the trend with all 18 stocks gaining.
