Looking at the headline number, total market profit in Q1/2026 may rise about 25% year-over-year. That is an attractive figure, but it masks an extreme divergence between sectors. Real estate surged over 400%, banking and retail posted double-digit growth, while steel and aviation sank under cost pressures. This earnings season is a critical test: does VN-Index at around 1,674 points have real profit support, or is it merely riding a low base effect?
MBS estimates total market profit grew 25%, but this increase is heavily concentrated in a few sectors.CafeF SSI Research tracks 40 key companies, of which 33 are expected to report positive growth, but 4 face significant declines.CafeF The story is not in the average, but in the gap between the leaders and the laggards.
Real Estate: The Star Performer at +407%
Real estate sector profit is expected to surge 407% year-over-year according to MBS, driven primarily by Vinhomes (VHM). Specifically, VHM is estimated to post after-tax profit of approximately VND 3,148 billion, up 19%, thanks to project handover progress and a more favorable regulatory framework.Nguoi Quan Sat
A critical detail in the real estate picture: PDR (Phat Dat) may report nearly 3,000% growth, but this comes from an extremely low Q1/2025 base. Looking only at percentage growth without examining absolute values is a classic trap. The sector’s gains are concentrated among a few industry leaders, not broadly distributed across all real estate companies.
Banking: Double-Digit Growth, Provisioning Costs Up 30%
Banking sector after-tax profit in Q1/2026 is projected to rise about 19% according to MBS, supported by 3% credit growth and modest NIM improvement.CafeF State-owned banks continue to lead with impressive figures: VietinBank (CTG) is estimated at VND 8,789 billion pre-tax profit, up 29%; BIDV (BID) at VND 9,366 billion, up 26%; and MB at VND 9,638 billion, up 15%.
Among private banks, VPBank stands out with 62.3% growth, while HDBank rose 28.5%. However, the picture is not uniformly bright. Sacombank (STB) is a concern, with profit potentially declining 31.1% due to restructuring costs.CafeF More importantly, industry-wide provisioning costs are expected to rise about 30%, particularly among joint-stock commercial banks. Banking profit figures need to be read alongside provisioning levels to understand true asset quality.
Retail and Jewelry: PNJ Up 121%, Masan 2.5x
The retail and jewelry group is a notable bright spot. SSI Research estimates PNJ earned approximately VND 1,500 billion in Q1, up 121% year-over-year thanks to improved gold material supply and Decree 232 which abolished the SJC gold bar monopoly.TBTCVN MWG (Mobile World) is forecast at VND 2,250 billion after-tax profit, up 45%, while Masan Group impressed with an estimated VND 2,500 billion, 2.5 times the prior year.
PNJ’s 121% growth reflects both seasonal factors (Lunar New Year) and policy changes. Decree 232 is a genuine turning point, dismantling the SJC gold bar monopoly mechanism and opening up more abundant raw material supply for jewelry companies.
Steel: HPG Holds Steady, But Coated Steel Nearly Wiped Out
The steel sector shows the starkest divergence this earnings season. According to VCBS Research, all three major players HPG, NKG, and HSG are forecast to report lower Q1 profit versus the same period last year.Nguoi Quan Sat Hoa Phat (HPG) is estimated at roughly VND 3,257 billion after-tax profit, down only 2.6% despite 15.9% revenue growth. But the damage is far worse at Nam Kim (NKG), with profit at just VND 5 billion (down 92.4%), and Hoa Sen (HSG) down 49.4%.
The root causes are global steel oversupply, new trade barriers from the EU’s CBAM mechanism, and severely compressed margins in coated steel. HPG’s scale advantages and integrated value chain keep it resilient, but smaller coated steel companies face existential pressure.
Aviation: Revenue Rises, Fuel Costs Erode Profits
Vietnam Airlines operated nearly 43,000 flights in Q1/2026, up 11%, carrying 6.9 million passengers. However, fuel cost pressure from the Middle East conflict significantly narrowed profit margins.CafeF Starting Q2/2026, Vietnam Airlines will cut 7 routes and 1,700 flights per month to optimize costs. This signals that the aviation industry is choosing tactical contraction rather than expanding at all costs.
Four “Beautiful Number” Traps Investors Should Watch
Looking at growth figures this earnings season, four points deserve special attention. First, many spectacular growth rates like PDR +3,000% or NT2 +465% stem from extremely low Q1/2025 bases and do not reflect genuine strength. Second, extraordinary income must be separated out: SSI Research forecasts HPG could reach VND 5,500 billion including extraordinary items, but core profit is only around VND 3,200-3,800 billion.
Third, the 30% rise in banking provisioning costs suggests that attractive profit figures may be masking accumulated bad debt risk. Finally, the macro backdrop is creating pressure: CPI at 3.35%, oil prices above USD 115 per barrel, and rising interest rates. These factors will weigh on capital costs and profit margins from Q2 onward.
Reading Q1 Earnings: Three Key Signals
Investors should focus on three signals when reading Q1/2026 financial statements. First, whether core profit is genuinely growing or merely boosted by extraordinary items. Second, whether gross margins are being maintained or compressed. Third, whether operating cash flow is healthy or the company looks good on paper but is cash-poor in practice. This earnings season is a chance to sort companies: which are truly strong, and which are merely surviving on the low base effect. With VN-Index at current levels, the answer lies in earnings quality, not growth speed.
