Looking at the numbers at the close of Q1/2026, FPT ended the March 31 session at 74,700 VND per share. Compared to early February prices, Vietnam’s largest tech stock on the exchange has lost roughly 25% of its value. Measured against the all-time high set in early 2025, the decline reaches 40%.MekongAsean FPT’s market cap now stands at approximately 127.3 trillion VND, and the most pressing question is not whether FPT will fall further, but which numbers are telling the real story.
Record Foreign Net Selling: 10,000 Billion VND in Two Months
The most notable aspect of this sell-off is that the selling pressure did not come from domestic investors. From early February through end of March 2026, foreign investors net sold nearly 10,000 billion VND worth of FPT shares.VietnamBiz In the first week of March alone, net selling reached 1,660 billion VND.Thoi bao TCVN
The direct consequence is that FPT’s foreign ownership room has opened up to a record of over 250 million shares, a level never seen in the stock’s trading history.CafeF This scale indicates that the selling was not sporadic profit-taking but a systematic capital withdrawal sustained over two consecutive months.
Three Reasons Behind the Foreign Exodus
AI threatening the software outsourcing model. The rise of DeepSeek, GitHub Copilot, and other AI coding tools is raising fundamental questions about the global IT outsourcing industry. According to BVSC’s analysis, the highest risk of disruption lies in low-value services such as technical support and basic programming.Elibook FPT is not alone in this; Infosys, the world’s outsourcing giant, also fell to its lowest level since mid-2023.
Foreign capital withdrawing from emerging markets. With Middle East tensions escalating, Brent crude surpassing $115 per barrel, and global AI stocks correcting sharply, foreign capital is rebalancing portfolios on a broad scale.VietnamBiz FPT’s high liquidity and large weighting in ETF portfolios make it a preferred vehicle for realizing profits. This is a structural factor unrelated to the company’s underlying business quality.
Financial restructuring after FPT Telecom divestiture. As of January 1, 2026, FPT no longer consolidates FPT Telecom (FOX) in its financial statements after the Ministry of Public Security acquired 50.17% of FOX shares. Consolidated revenue for 2026 is projected at only 58,580 billion VND, down from 70,113 billion VND in 2025.VietnamBiz The on-paper revenue decline may mislead investors who do not read carefully into thinking FPT is shrinking, while the core business remains unchanged.
FPT vs VN-Index: A Striking Underperformance
Looking at the comparison chart, FPT fell approximately 22% while the VN-Index declined 6.2% from the start of the year. The nearly 16 percentage point underperformance gap shows that selling pressure on FPT was far more intense than the broader market. March in particular saw the most violent sell-off, with both lines plunging but FPT falling significantly deeper.
But the Business Numbers Tell a Different Story
Looking at 2025 results, FPT recorded revenue of 70,113 billion VND and pre-tax profit of 13,039 billion VND, up 11.6% and 18% respectively over 2024.CafeF EPS grew 21%, with the technology segment contributing 63% of sales and foreign IT services growing 14.3%.Suc khoe Doi song This is not the picture of a company in decline.
Strategically, FPT is proactively pivoting to an “AI-First” model, focusing on integrating AI into every solution, developing specialized AI Agents, and building AI Factory infrastructure.CafeF The 2026 plan targets technology segment revenue of 52,650 billion VND and pre-tax profit of 7,350 billion VND, up 18.4% and 24.9% respectively.Vietstock
Notably, FPT Software launched FleziPT, a comprehensive AI ecosystem, and won 26 projects each exceeding $10 million in foreign markets during 2025.Tin nhanh Chung khoan Management argues that as global enterprises accelerate digital transformation and AI integration, demand for comprehensive IT services will increase, not decrease.
Valuation: P/E at Multi-Year Lows
At the current price of 74,700 VND, FPT’s P/E has dropped from the 25-30x range during the “AI infrastructure bubble” to below 20x, its lowest level in years.24hMoney The average 12-month target price from securities firms remains around 105,000-119,000 VND, representing 40-60% upside from current levels. However, caution is warranted: if the market is structurally re-rating the entire IT outsourcing sector due to AI, then comparing P/E to historical levels may be misleading.
Three Signals to Watch in Q2/2026
Investors should focus on three key factors in the coming quarter. First, Q1/2026 earnings will be the most important litmus test: if foreign IT revenue growth maintains the 14-18% range, the narrative that AI will cannibalize outsourcing becomes less concerning. Second, foreign capital flows need close monitoring; the record-open foreign room also represents an opportunity for domestic investors to accumulate at price levels where they previously had to queue for room allocation. Third, developments in the global IT outsourcing sector will provide crucial signals; if Infosys and Wipro report solid results, the positive effect will spill over to FPT.
Looking at the numbers, FPT stands at a crossroads between sector re-rating risk and a long-term accumulation opportunity. The answer hinges on one core assumption: whether AI will replace or create more work for IT services companies. Q1/2026 earnings will be the first data point to test that assumption.
